JPMorgan analyst Hardik Parikh says Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Phase 3 data for orforglipron in type 2 diabetes suggest a “highly competitive profile” for the drug. The firm views the data as its base case scenario, whereby Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) shares could be up double-digit percent in this scenario on a “highly favorable read-through” and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) could move mid-single-digit in either direction. JPMorgan’s focus was primarily on orfoglipron’s tolerability profile with the extended titration, and here the data is highlighted by an 8% discontinuation rate on the highest dose versus low-teens expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees the data as “helping derisk the category,” giving more confidence that Structure can also bring tolerability of aleniglipron to reasonable levels. For Viking, the read-through is not as direct, and today’s data “clearly helps derisk a strong” first in class oral competitor from Lilly, which could limit the potential of late entrant injectable assets, says JPMorgan. However, the firm believes the data “still leaves a clear role” for Viking’s “highly tolerable” oral VK-2735.

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