Key Insights

The projected fair value for Genesis Minerals is AU$6.48 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Genesis Minerals' AU$4.43 share price signals that it might be 32% undervalued Analyst price target for GMD is AU$4.61 which is 29% below our fair value estimate

Does the June share price for Genesis Minerals Limited (ASX:GMD) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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Is Genesis Minerals Fairly Valued?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (A$, Millions)  AU$213.7m AU$306.1m AU$312.8m AU$319.9m AU$327.9m AU$336.5m AU$345.6m AU$355.3m AU$365.3m AU$375.8m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x4 Analyst x5 Analyst x5 Est @ 2.28% Est @ 2.48% Est @ 2.62% Est @ 2.72% Est @ 2.79% Est @ 2.84% Est @ 2.87% Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 6.9%  AU$200 AU$268 AU$256 AU$245 AU$235 AU$226 AU$217 AU$209 AU$201 AU$193

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$2.3b

Story Continues

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$376m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (6.9%– 2.9%) = AU$9.9b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$9.9b÷ ( 1 + 6.9%)10= AU$5.1b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$7.3b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$4.4, the company appears quite undervalued at a 32% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.ASX:GMD Discounted Cash Flow June 24th 2025

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Genesis Minerals as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.906. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

View our latest analysis for Genesis Minerals

SWOT Analysis for Genesis Minerals

Strength

Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

No major weaknesses identified for GMD.

Opportunity

Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.

Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.

Threat

Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Genesis Minerals, we've compiled three relevant elements you should consider:

Financial Health: Does GMD have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk. Future Earnings: How does GMD's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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