Buying a low-cost index fund will get you the average market return. But in any diversified portfolio of stocks, you'll see some that fall short of the average. That's what has happened with the Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) share price. It's up 11% over three years, but that is below the market return. At least the stock price is up over the last year, albeit only by 4.3%.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 3 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

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Given that Transurban Group only made minimal earnings in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue to gauge its business development. As a general rule, we think this kind of company is more comparable to loss-making stocks, since the actual profit is so low. For shareholders to have confidence a company will grow profits significantly, it must grow revenue.

Over the last three years Transurban Group has grown its revenue at 0.3% annually. Considering the company is losing money, we think that rate of revenue growth is uninspiring. The market doesn't seem too pleased with the revenue growth rate, given the modest 4% annual share price gain over three years. It seems likely that we'll have to zoom in on the data more closely to understand if there is an opportunity here.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).ASX:TCL Earnings and Revenue Growth September 12th 2025

We know that Transurban Group has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? This free interactive report on Transurban Group's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Transurban Group the TSR over the last 3 years was 27%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Transurban Group shareholders gained a total return of 9.4% during the year. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 5% over half a decade It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Transurban Group better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified  3 warning signs for Transurban Group (2 don't sit too well with us)  that you should be aware of.



Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this freelist of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.