Explore Aviva's Fair Values from the Community and select yours

When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. Furthermore, you'd generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Aviva plc (LON:AV.) share price is up 64% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. But if you include dividends then the return is market-beating. On a brighter note, more newer shareholders are probably rather content with the 37% share price gain over twelve months.

Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.

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While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Aviva's earnings per share are down 24% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.

Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Because earnings per share don't seem to match up with the share price, we'll take a look at other metrics instead.

We note that the dividend has not increased, so that doesn't seem to explain the increase, either. And the -11% compound annual revenue reduction might be interpreted as a sign that Aviva's best days are behind it. So it's not clear to us why the share price is up - a closer inspection of the stock might yield clues.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).LSE:AV. Earnings and Revenue Growth August 7th 2025

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. You can see what analysts are predicting for Aviva in this interactivegraph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Aviva's TSR for the last 5 years was 209%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

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A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Aviva shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 47% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 25% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Aviva better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk.  We've identified 2 warning signs  with Aviva , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Aviva is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this freelist of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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