Imperial Oil Limited (TSE:IMO) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues missed analyst forecasts badly, coming in 27% below estimates at CA$13b. Equally surprising was the fact that statutory earnings per share of CA$2.52 beat analyst estimates by 15%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Imperial Oil's nine analysts is for revenues of CA$56.8b in 2025. This would reflect a notable 9.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to descend 11% to CA$8.55 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$58.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$7.66 in 2025. While revenue forecasts have been revised downwards, the analysts look to have become more optimistic on the company's cost base, given the decent improvement in to the earnings per share numbers.

Check out our latest analysis for Imperial Oil

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of CA$99.39, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Imperial Oil analyst has a price target of CA$118 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$80.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 16% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 3.1% per year. So although Imperial Oil is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Imperial Oil following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. The consensus price target held steady at CA$99.39, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Imperial Oil going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted  1 warning sign for Imperial Oil  you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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