It's been a mediocre week for Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ:RKLB) shareholders, with the stock dropping 11% to US$20.51 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. Revenues came in at US$123m, in line with forecasts and the company reported a statutory loss of US$0.12 per share, roughly in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Our free stock report includes 2 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Rocket Lab USA. Read for free now.NasdaqCM:RKLB Earnings and Revenue Growth May 10th 2025

Following the latest results, Rocket Lab USA's 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$569.7m in 2025. This would be a huge 22% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 18% from last year to US$0.37. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$578.8m and losses of US$0.37 per share in 2025.

View our latest analysis for Rocket Lab USA

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$25.53, suggesting that the business - losses and all - is executing in line with estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Rocket Lab USA, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$33.00 and the most bearish at US$14.35 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Rocket Lab USA's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 31% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 42% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Rocket Lab USA's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

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The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Rocket Lab USA going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified  2 warning signs for Rocket Lab USA that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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