It's been a sad week for Growthpoint Properties Australia (ASX:GOZ), who've watched their investment drop 12% to AU$2.39 in the week since the company reported its full-year result. Revenues of AU$333m beat expectations by 7.4%. Unfortunately statutory earnings per share (EPS) fell well short of the mark, turning in a loss of AU$0.32 compared to previous analyst expectations of a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Growthpoint Properties Australia after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Growthpoint Properties Australia  earnings-and-revenue-growth

Taking into account the latest results, the six analysts covering Growthpoint Properties Australia provided consensus estimates of AU$292.5m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a not inconsiderable 12% decline over the past 12 months. Growthpoint Properties Australia is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of AU$0.27 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$312.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.28 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of AU$3.35, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Growthpoint Properties Australia's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Growthpoint Properties Australia, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$4.05 and the most bearish at AU$2.80 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.



One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 12% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 4.6% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 6.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that Growthpoint Properties Australia's revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately they also cut their revenue estimates for next year. Forecasts imply the business' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. That said, earnings per share are more important for creating value for shareholders. The consensus price target held steady at AU$3.35, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Growthpoint Properties Australia analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that  Growthpoint Properties Australia is showing  2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is significant...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.