Green Dot Corporation (NYSE:GDOT) defied analyst predictions to release its first-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. Green Dot beat expectations, with revenue hitting US$556m (10% ahead of estimates) and EPS reaching US$0.47 (a 8.5% beat). The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Our free stock report includes 1 warning sign investors should be aware of before investing in Green Dot. Read for free now.NYSE:GDOT Earnings and Revenue Growth May 11th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Green Dot's four analysts is for revenues of US$2.06b in 2025. This would reflect a solid 13% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The statutory loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 146% to US$0.26. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.89b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.12 in 2025. Yet despite a modest lift to revenues, the analysts are now forecasting a loss instead of a profit, which looks like a reduction in sentiment after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Green Dot

The average price target rose 7.0% to US$11.50, even thoughthe analysts have been updating their forecasts to show higher revenues and higher forecast losses. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Green Dot analyst has a price target of US$14.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Green Dot's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 17% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.3% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 11% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Green Dot is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for Green Dot dropped from profits to a loss next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Green Dot. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Green Dot going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified  1 warning sign for Green Dot that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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