Last week, you might have seen that Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.4% to US$157 in the past week. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$3.0b, statutory losses exploded to US$1.56 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following the latest results, Expedia Group's 32 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$14.1b in 2025. This would be a modest 2.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 10% to US$10.14. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$14.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.76 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for Expedia Group

The average price target fell 5.8% to US$190, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Expedia Group analyst has a price target of US$290 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$135. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Expedia Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 15% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Expedia Group.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Expedia Group. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Expedia Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Expedia Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether Expedia Group's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools  on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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