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It's been a good week for Evolution Mining Limited (ASX:EVN) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 7.0% to AU$7.99. Evolution Mining reported AU$4.4b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.46 beat expectations, being 4.8% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Evolution Mining's 15 analysts is for revenues of AU$4.88b in 2026. This would reflect a solid 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 29% to AU$0.60. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$4.73b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.64 in 2026. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Evolution Mining after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.

View our latest analysis for Evolution Mining

The consensus price target was unchanged at AU$7.17, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Evolution Mining analyst has a price target of AU$8.90 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$3.80. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Evolution Mining's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Evolution Mining's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Evolution Mining. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$7.17, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Evolution Mining going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Evolution Mining is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free  on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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