Ecora Royalties hits inflexion point as base metals revenue surges 150%; shares up 140% in a year Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock

Critical minerals now account for 63% of portfolio contribution as the royalty company's pivot away from coal produces tangible results

Ecora Royalties PLC (LSE:ECOR, TSX:ECOR, OTCQX:ECRAF, FRA:HGR) has consciously positioned itself away from steelmaking coal dependence. In 2025, that bet paid off.

Base metals portfolio contribution hit $28.5 million for the full year, a 150% increase on 2024's $11.4 million, powered by higher cobalt deliveries from Voisey's Bay, a maiden contribution from the Mimbula copper stream and record production at Mantos Blancos. Critical minerals now comprise 63% of total portfolio contribution, exceeding steelmaking coal for the first time.

The market has noticed. Ecora's shares are up 27% year to date and nearly 140% over the past 12 months. Three of the four UK covering analysts rate the stock a buy.

The volume story is real, and it's compounding

CEO Marc Bishop Lafleche described 2025 as "an inflexion point for Ecora," and the numbers back that up. Total portfolio contribution came in at $57 million, though that was down 10% from 2024's $63.2 million, with the base metals surge offset by a sharp decline in the bulks segment. Kestrel steelmaking coal revenue fell from $41.4 million to $17.5 million on weaker year-on-year pricing and reduced.

The base metals' growth was driven by two forces working in tandem: rising production volumes and supportive commodity prices.

At Voisey's Bay, Vale's underground nickel and cobalt mine in Labrador, Canada, Ecora received 448 tonnes of attributable cobalt in 2025, at the top end of upgraded guidance and more than double the 210 tonnes received in 2024. A period of planned maintenance at the mine and the nearby Long Harbor Processing Plant weighed on fourth-quarter deliveries (126 tonnes versus 182 in Q3), but this was expected and offset by increased copper contribution from Mimbula (Zambia) and Mantos Blancos (Chile). The company has guided for 500 to 560 tonnes of attributable cobalt in 2026 as the mine approaches steady-state production.

The Mimbula copper stream, acquired in Q1 2025 for $50 million, finished the year at an exit production rate of 20,000 tonnes per annum, with 2026 guidance of 30,000 to 35,000 tonnes. Mantos Blancos posted a quarterly record contribution of $3.1 million in Q4, benefiting from a strong copper price environment. Berenberg noted the Mantos Blancos result was a meaningful beat against its $2.3 million estimate and was the main driver of the stronger-than-expected quarter overall.

Story Continues

Base metals beat expectations; coal disappointed

Fourth quarter portfolio contribution of $14.3 million came in broadly in line with brokers' estimates: Berenberg $13.9 million, Canaccord Genuity had forecast $14.6 million, RBC had forecast $13.9million, and consensus sat at [$14.1 million]. But beneath that headline, the mix was telling.

Base metals' contribution of $9.9 million beat Canaccord's $7.6 million estimate by 30%, with Mantos Blancos, Mimbula and Carlota all coming in higher. Berenberg similarly noted Voisey's Bay delivered a net contribution of $5.3 million, ahead of its $5.1 million estimate.

The miss came at Kestrel, where 'bulks' contribution of [$2.6 million] fell short of all three brokers' forecasts.

Deleveraging in a single quarter

The balance sheet improved markedly in the final three months of the year. Net debt fell from $104 million at the end of September to $85.5 million by 31 December, a reduction of nearly $19 million in a single quarter. For context, year-end 2024 net debt stood at $82.3 million before the Mimbula acquisition pushed borrowings higher.

Most of the brokers had overestimated year-end leverage: Berenberg $92.6 million, Canaccord $82 million, Peel Hunt had pencilled in $100 million, and RBC had net debt at $92 million. Berenberg attributed the beat to a mix of stronger quarterly revenue and favourable working capital timing, while Peel Hunt pointed specifically to the timing of royalty payments towards year end.

Brokers raise forecasts on upgraded commodity outlook

The analyst response to the Q4 update was uniformly positive.

Berenberg maintained its 'buy' rating and 190p target, but raised its 2025 and 2026 sales estimates and increased its 2026 EBITDA forecast to $52 million. The broker highlighted that the shares trade at 0.84 times its base-case risked NAV and 0.61 times its unrisked NAV, with clear upside at spot commodity prices. It forecasts Ecora could derive around 40% of its portfolio contribution from copper by 2030, up from 28% currently.

Canaccord raised its target price 19% to 185p (from 155p), citing an upgraded commodity price deck that lifted its 2026 EBITDA estimate by 10% to $50 million and its 2027 forecast by 14% to $46 million. The broker raised its long-term copper price by 22% to $5.50 per pound and increased cobalt forecasts through 2029 to $24 per pound flat, noting that even the revised copper deck sits below the current spot price of around $5.85 per pound. Canaccord sees a fair value range of £1.64 to £2.05 per share, implying over 25% upside from the 144p price at the time of publication.

Peel Hunt raised its target price 34% to 154p (from 115p) with a ‘hold’ recommendation.. Noting higher commodity prices driving the increase.

RBC raised its target price 12.5% to 160p (from 140p), driven by modifying their valuation methodology to bring it in line with Canadian royalty company peers, lifting their discount rate from 7% to 8% and dropping probability weightings for royalties that have not been modelled (West Musgrave/Santo Domingo etc). For royalties not modelled, they have left at balance sheet values. This facilitates simpler benchmarking exercises across the coverage, lifting their price target on base case forecasts. On current spot commodity prices, their valuation would lift to 190p.

Development pipeline offers multiple catalysts

Beyond the producing portfolio, Ecora's development assets are reaching key milestones. Capstone Copper has entered into a binding agreement to sell a 25% interest in the Santo Domingo (Chile) project to entities managed by Orion Resource Partners, clearing a path to a Final Investment Decision as early as the second half of 2026. Canaccord values Santo Domingo at £93 million in its NAV, or 37p per share.

Berenberg identified three development projects with a clear path to construction: Santo Domingo, the Phalaborwa rare earths project in South Africa and BHP's West Musgrave nickel-copper project in Western Australia. Canaccord assigns West Musgrave a £110 million NAV, or 44p per share, making it the single largest value component in its model.

Elsewhere, Cyprium Metals approved the restart plan for the Nifty copper cathode project in Western Australia, with first production expected in mid-2026, though Ecora's royalty payments are not triggered until a cumulative 800,000 tonnes of copper have been produced from the mine. And in a deal that strengthens the long-term pipeline, Fortescue has agreed to acquire the remaining 64% of Alta Copper, owner of the Cañariaco copper project (Peru) over which Ecora holds a royalty, with closing expected in March 2026.

In the specialty metals space, Rainbow Rare Earths continued to progress the Phalaborwa Definitive Feasibility Study, adding yttrium to the mineral resource estimate, which the company said could add over $30 million to the project's estimated EBITDA. NexGen Energy expanded the mineralised footprint at its Patterson Corridor East uranium discovery to 700 metres of vertical extent, with a 42,000-metre drilling programme planned for 2026.

The bigger picture

Ecora's transformation from a coal-heavy royalty company to a critical minerals-focused one is now producing tangible financial results. The base metals portfolio has gone from $11.4 million to $28.5 million in a single year, and critical minerals revenue has overtaken coal for the first time.

The question for investors is whether 2026's expected volume increases at Voisey's Bay and Mimbula, combined with supportive commodity prices, can push total revenue towards the revenue figures projected by analysts. With the majority of brokers rating the stock a buy and the development pipeline offering multiple shots on goal, the direction of travel is clear.

View Comments