The investors in Tabcorp Holdings Limited's (ASX:TAH) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 40% to AU$0.98 in the week following its yearly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of AU$2.6b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Tabcorp Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of AU$0.016 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Tabcorp Holdings' eleven analysts is for revenues of AU$2.69b in 2026. This reflects a modest 2.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 94% to AU$0.031. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$2.66b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.023 in 2026. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the sizeable expansion in earnings per share expectations following these results.

See our latest analysis for Tabcorp Holdings

The consensus price target rose 26% to AU$0.94, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Tabcorp Holdings analyst has a price target of AU$1.04 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$0.70. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Tabcorp Holdings is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 2.5% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 15% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.5% per year. Although Tabcorp Holdings' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Tabcorp Holdings following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Tabcorp Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Tabcorp Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also view our analysis of Tabcorp Holdings' balance sheet, and whether we think Tabcorp Holdings is carrying too much debt, for free  on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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