Last week, you might have seen that Genius Sports Limited (NYSE:GENI) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.2% to US$10.37 in the past week. It looks like the results were pretty good overall. While revenues of US$144m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were much smaller than expected, with Genius Sports losing US$0.03 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Genius Sports after the latest results.

We check all companies for important risks. See what we found for Genius Sports in our free report.NYSE:GENI Earnings and Revenue Growth May 10th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Genius Sports' 15 analysts is for revenues of US$620.6m in 2025. This reflects a solid 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Genius Sports is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.035 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$619.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.027 in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a considerable lift to earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

See our latest analysis for Genius Sports

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$12.40, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Genius Sports, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$15.00 and the most bearish at US$11.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 22% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 19% annual growth over the past three years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 9.7% annually. So although Genius Sports is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Genius Sports following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$12.40, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Genius Sports. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Genius Sports going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Genius Sports Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock,  here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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