Eagle Materials Inc. (NYSE:EXP) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.9% to US$214 in the week after its latest annual results. Revenues of US$2.3b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$13.77, missing estimates by 2.9%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Our free stock report includes 1 warning sign investors should be aware of before investing in Eagle Materials. Read for free now.NYSE:EXP Earnings and Revenue Growth May 23rd 2025

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Eagle Materials are now predicting revenues of US$2.32b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 2.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$14.01, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.36b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$15.33 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Eagle Materials

The consensus price target held steady at US$254, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Eagle Materials analyst has a price target of US$285 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$220. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Eagle Materials is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Eagle Materials' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 2.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.9% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Eagle Materials.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Eagle Materials analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Eagle Materials that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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