As you might know, TMX Group Limited (TSE:X) recently reported its first-quarter numbers. Statutory earnings per share of CA$0.38 unfortunately missed expectations by 11%, although it was encouraging to see revenues of CA$419m exceed expectations by 2.8%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, TMX Group's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of CA$1.65b in 2025. This would be an okay 7.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 5.8% to CA$1.70. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CA$1.62b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$1.75 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for TMX Group

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CA$55.38, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic TMX Group analyst has a price target of CA$58.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$49.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 10.0% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 12% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues fall 8.3% per year. So it's clear that not only is revenue growth expected to be maintained, but TMX Group is expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, they made no changes to their revenue estimates - and they expect it to perform better than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple TMX Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of TMX Group's balance sheet, and whether we think TMX Group is carrying too much debt, for free  on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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