Shareholders in The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 20% to US$25.21 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at US$605m, although statutory earnings per share came in 20% below what the analysts expected, at US$0.14 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Our free stock report includes 3 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in GEO Group. Read for free now.NYSE:GEO Earnings and Revenue Growth May 10th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from GEO Group's four analysts is for revenues of US$2.63b in 2025. This would reflect a meaningful 8.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 313% to US$0.91. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.66b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.15 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

See our latest analysis for GEO Group

The consensus price target held steady at US$44.80, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on GEO Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$55.00 and the most bearish at US$35.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the GEO Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting GEO Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 11% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.6% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that GEO Group is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$44.80, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on GEO Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for GEO Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted  3 warning signs for GEO Group  (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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