Nutrien Ltd. (TSE:NTR) missed earnings with its latest first-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$4.9b revenue coming in 5.3% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.02 missed the mark badly, arriving some 91% below what was expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early.TSX:NTR Earnings and Revenue Growth May 9th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Nutrien's 18 analysts is for revenues of US$25.3b in 2025. This would reflect a reasonable 2.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 251% to US$3.79. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$26.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.61 in 2025. If anything, the analysts look to have become slightly more optimistic overall; while they decreased their revenue forecasts, EPS predictions increased and ultimately earnings are more important.

See our latest analysis for Nutrien

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of CA$78.96, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Nutrien at CA$96.13 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$56.23. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nutrien's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.1% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Nutrien.

Story Continues

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Nutrien's earnings potential next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target held steady at CA$78.96, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Nutrien. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Nutrien analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Nutrien that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

View Comments