Shareholders might have noticed that Nickel Industries Limited (ASX:NIC) filed its interim result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.1% to AU$0.70 in the past week. Results overall were not great, with earnings of US$0.0026 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit US$830m and were slightly better than forecasts. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Nickel Industries after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the eight analysts covering Nickel Industries provided consensus estimates of US$1.67b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a measurable 3.3% decline over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Nickel Industries forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.0065 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.71b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.025 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a large cut to earnings per share numbers.

See our latest analysis for Nickel Industries

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of AU$0.95, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Nickel Industries' valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Nickel Industries, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$1.80 and the most bearish at AU$0.65 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 6.6% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 17% over the last three years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.1% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Nickel Industries is expected to lag the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at AU$0.95, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Nickel Industries. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Nickel Industries going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also view our analysis of Nickel Industries' balance sheet, and whether we think Nickel Industries is carrying too much debt, for free  on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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