The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Molson Coors Beverage Company (NYSE:TAP), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its first-quarter results last week. Molson Coors Beverage missed earnings this time around, with US$2.3b revenue coming in 3.8% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.59 also fell short of expectations by 12%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Molson Coors Beverage's 19 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$11.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 16% to US$5.95. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$11.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.17 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Molson Coors Beverage

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.3% to US$63.14, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Molson Coors Beverage, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$86.90 and the most bearish at US$54.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Molson Coors Beverage's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.3% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Molson Coors Beverage.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Molson Coors Beverage. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Molson Coors Beverage's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Molson Coors Beverage's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Molson Coors Beverage analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Molson Coors Beverage that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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