Last week, you might have seen that Capstone Copper Corp. (TSE:CS) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.9% to CA$6.66 in the past week. The results don't look great, especially considering that the analysts had been forecasting a profit and Capstone Copper delivered a statutory loss of US$0.0096 per share. Revenues of US$533m did beat expectations by 6.1% though. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality.TSX:CS Earnings and Revenue Growth May 4th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Capstone Copper's 17 analysts is for revenues of US$2.22b in 2025. This reflects a sizeable 24% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 62% to US$0.17. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.19b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.28 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Capstone Copper

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CA$10.74, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Capstone Copper, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$13.00 and the most bearish at CA$8.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Capstone Copper's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 33% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 27% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 14% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Capstone Copper to grow faster than the wider industry.

Story Continues

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$10.74, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Capstone Copper. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Capstone Copper going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Capstone Copper that you need to be mindful of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

View Comments