It's been a good week for Cognex Corporation (NASDAQ:CGNX) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 6.4% to US$27.83. Revenues were US$216m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.14 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 10%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Cognex from 21 analysts is for revenues of US$955.3m in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 3.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 15% to US$0.81. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$958.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.83 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Cognex

The consensus price target held steady at US$37.90, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Cognex analyst has a price target of US$53.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$27.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Cognex's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 5.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.7% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 7.1% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Cognex is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Cognex going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our  analysis of Cognex's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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