Today is shaping up negative for Matson, Inc. (NYSE:MATX) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business. Bidders are definitely seeing a different story, with the stock price of US$118 reflecting a 26% rise in the past week. It will be interesting to see if the downgrade has an impact on buying demand for the company's shares.

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After the downgrade, the consensus from Matson's two analysts is for revenues of US$3.1b in 2025, which would reflect a definite 12% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to plunge 45% to US$8.57 in the same period. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.24 in 2025. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a pretty serious decline to earnings per share numbers as well.

View our latest analysis for Matson NYSE:MATX Earnings and Revenue Growth May 14th 2025

Analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$143, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Matson's valuation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 16% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.0% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 0.9% annually for the foreseeable future. The forecasts do look bearish for Matson, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately they also cut their revenue estimates for this year, and they expect sales to lag the wider market. That said, earnings per share are more important for creating value for shareholders. We're also surprised to see that the price target went unchanged. Still, deteriorating business conditions (assuming accurate forecasts!) can be a leading indicator for the stock price, so we wouldn't blame investors for being more cautious on Matson after the downgrade.

Story Continues

There might be good reason for analyst bearishness towards Matson, like recent substantial insider selling. Learn more, and discover the 1 other concern we've identified, for free  on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be  reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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