Key Insights

Oceania Healthcare's estimated fair value is NZ$0.62 based on Dividend Discount Model Oceania Healthcare is estimated to be 22% overvalued based on current share price of NZ$0.76 Analyst price target for OCA is NZ$1.07, which is 71% above our fair value estimate

Does the September share price for Oceania Healthcare Limited (NZSE:OCA) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Oceania Healthcare

Is Oceania Healthcare Fairly Valued?

We have to calculate the value of Oceania Healthcare slightly differently to other stocks because it is a healthcare company. In this approach dividends per share (DPS) are used, as free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. This often underestimates the value of a stock, but it can still be good as a comparison to competitors. We use the Gordon Growth Model, which assumes dividend will grow into perpetuity at a rate that can be sustained. The dividend is expected to grow at an annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We then discount this figure to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.3%. Compared to the current share price of NZ$0.8, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.



Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)

= NZ$0.04 / (6.3% – 2.3%)

= NZ$0.6 dcf

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Oceania Healthcare as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Oceania Healthcare

Strength

No major strengths identified for OCA.

Weakness

Earnings declined over the past year.

Interest payments on debt are not well covered.

Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Healthcare market.

Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Opportunity

Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the New Zealander market.

Threat

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

Dividends are not covered by earnings and cashflows.

Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For Oceania Healthcare, we've compiled three fundamental elements you should explore:

Risks: For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Oceania Healthcare (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for OCA's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.