A week ago, CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE:CXW) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$489m, some 2.1% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.23, 85% ahead of expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on CoreCivic after the latest results.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about CoreCivic. View them for free.NYSE:CXW Earnings and Revenue Growth May 10th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from CoreCivic's three analysts is for revenues of US$2.04b in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 4.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 5.8% to US$0.82. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.03b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.73 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the decent improvement in earnings per share expectations following these results.

View our latest analysis for CoreCivic

The consensus price target rose 8.5% to US$30.50, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values CoreCivic at US$42.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$25.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that CoreCivic's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 0.3% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 6.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that CoreCivic is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards CoreCivic following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for CoreCivic going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that  CoreCivic is showing  2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those doesn't sit too well with us...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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