Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:CMA) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.9% to US$51.44 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Comerica reported US$829m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.25 beat expectations, being 7.1% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the 17 analysts covering Comerica are now predicting revenues of US$3.38b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a modest 4.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 2.1% to US$5.26 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.25 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Comerica

With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 8.6% to US$60.30, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Comerica at US$80.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$50.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Comerica shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Comerica's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 6.3% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.0% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.0% annually. Comerica is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Comerica going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see whether Comerica is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free  on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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