Regular readers will know that we love our dividends at Simply Wall St, which is why it's exciting to see Codan Limited (ASX:CDA) is about to trade ex-dividend in the next four days. Typically, the ex-dividend date is one business day before the record date which is the date on which a company determines the shareholders eligible to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is of consequence because whenever a stock is bought or sold, the trade takes at least two business day to settle. Meaning, you will need to purchase Codan's shares before the 5th of September to receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 20th of September.

The company's next dividend payment will be AU$0.095 per share, on the back of last year when the company paid a total of AU$0.18 to shareholders. Based on the last year's worth of payments, Codan stock has a trailing yield of around 2.4% on the current share price of A$7.86. Dividends are a major contributor to investment returns for long term holders, but only if the dividend continues to be paid. We need to see whether the dividend is covered by earnings and if it's growing.

See our latest analysis for Codan

If a company pays out more in dividends than it earned, then the dividend might become unsustainable - hardly an ideal situation. Codan paid out a comfortable 49% of its profit last year. Yet cash flow is typically more important than profit for assessing dividend sustainability, so we should always check if the company generated enough cash to afford its dividend. Over the past year it paid out 142% of its free cash flow as dividends, which is uncomfortably high. It's hard to consistently pay out more cash than you generate without either borrowing or using company cash, so we'd wonder how the company justifies this payout level.

While Codan's dividends were covered by the company's reported profits, cash is somewhat more important, so it's not great to see that the company didn't generate enough cash to pay its dividend. Were this to happen repeatedly, this would be a risk to Codan's ability to maintain its dividend.



Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends. historic-dividend

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Stocks in companies that generate sustainable earnings growth often make the best dividend prospects, as it is easier to lift the dividend when earnings are rising. If earnings fall far enough, the company could be forced to cut its dividend. This is why it's a relief to see Codan earnings per share are up 9.9% per annum over the last five years. Earnings have been growing at a steady rate, but we're concerned dividend payments consumed most of the company's cash flow over the past year.

The main way most investors will assess a company's dividend prospects is by checking the historical rate of dividend growth. Codan has delivered an average of 6.9% per year annual increase in its dividend, based on the past 10 years of dividend payments. It's encouraging to see the company lifting dividends while earnings are growing, suggesting at least some corporate interest in rewarding shareholders.

Final Takeaway

Should investors buy Codan for the upcoming dividend? Codan has seen its earnings per share grow steadily and paid out less than half its profit over the last year. Unfortunately, its dividend was not well covered by free cash flow. Overall we're not hugely bearish on the stock, but there are likely better dividend investments out there.

Curious what other investors think of Codan? See what analysts are forecasting, with this visualisation of its historical and future estimated earnings and cash flow.

Generally, we wouldn't recommend just buying the first dividend stock you see. Here's a curated list of interesting stocks that are strong dividend payers.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.