Key Insights

The projected fair value for Frasers Group is UK£5.74 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With UK£6.18 share price, Frasers Group appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value Our fair value estimate is 32% lower than Frasers Group's analyst price target of UK£8.40

Does the March share price for Frasers Group Plc (LON:FRAS) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Frasers Group

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (£, Millions)  UK£219.6m UK£216.4m UK£209.9m UK£206.9m UK£206.3m UK£207.2m UK£209.4m UK£212.3m UK£215.8m UK£219.9m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x3 Analyst x3 Est @ -3.02% Est @ -1.43% Est @ -0.31% Est @ 0.47% Est @ 1.02% Est @ 1.41% Est @ 1.67% Est @ 1.86% Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 9.8%  UK£200 UK£179 UK£158 UK£142 UK£129 UK£118 UK£109 UK£100 UK£92.9 UK£86.1

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£1.3b

Story Continues

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£220m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (9.8%– 2.3%) = UK£3.0b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£3.0b÷ ( 1 + 9.8%)10= UK£1.2b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£2.5b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£6.2, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.LSE:FRAS Discounted Cash Flow March 14th 2025

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Frasers Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.467. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Frasers Group

Strength

Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

Earnings declined over the past year.

Opportunity

Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.

Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.

Threat

Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the British market.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Frasers Group, we've compiled three relevant factors you should look at:

Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Frasers Group that you should be aware of before investing here. Future Earnings: How does FRAS's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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