Explore BP's Fair Values from the Community and select yours

BP p.l.c. (LON:BP.) just released its second-quarter report and things are looking bullish. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and statutory earnings per share (EPS) both coming in strong. Revenues were 15% higher than the analysts had forecast, at US$47b, while EPS were US$0.10 beating analyst models by 22%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 22 analysts covering BP, is for revenues of US$179.3b in 2025. This implies a small 3.0% reduction in BP's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 956% to US$0.38. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$178.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.41 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for BP

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at UK£4.34, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values BP at UK£5.19 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£3.48. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 5.9% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 7.7% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 13% per year. It's pretty clear that BP's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for BP. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that BP's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for BP going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk.  We've identified 4 warning signs  with BP , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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