Bloomin' Brands (BLMN): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q4 Earnings?

Bloomin' Brands has gotten torched over the last six months - since October 2024, its stock price has dropped 54.5% to $7.66 per share. This was partly due to its softer quarterly results and might have investors contemplating their next move.

Is there a buying opportunity in Bloomin' Brands, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Get the full stock story straight from our expert analysts, it’s free.

Even with the cheaper entry price, we don't have much confidence in Bloomin' Brands. Here are three reasons why there are better opportunities than BLMN and a stock we'd rather own.

Why Do We Think Bloomin' Brands Will Underperform?

Owner of the iconic Australian-themed Outback Steakhouse, Bloomin’ Brands (NASDAQ:BLMN) is a leading American restaurant company that owns and operates a portfolio of popular restaurant brands.

1. Flat Same-Store Sales Indicate Weak Demand

Same-store sales show the change in sales at restaurants open for at least a year. This is a key performance indicator because it measures organic growth.

Bloomin' Brands’s demand within its existing dining locations has barely increased over the last two years as its same-store sales were flat.Bloomin' Brands Same-Store Sales Growth

2. Shrinking Operating Margin

Operating margin is an important measure of profitability as it shows the portion of revenue left after accounting for all core expenses – everything from the cost of goods sold to advertising and wages. It’s also useful for comparing profitability across companies with different levels of debt and tax rates because it excludes interest and taxes.

Looking at the trend in its profitability, Bloomin' Brands’s operating margin decreased by 3.3 percentage points over the last year. Bloomin' Brands’s performance was poor no matter how you look at it - it shows that costs were rising and it couldn’t pass them onto its customers. Its operating margin for the trailing 12 months was 3.6%.Bloomin' Brands Trailing 12-Month Operating Margin (GAAP)

3. High Debt Levels Increase Risk

As long-term investors, the risk we care about most is the permanent loss of capital, which can happen when a company goes bankrupt or raises money from a disadvantaged position. This is separate from short-term stock price volatility, something we are much less bothered by.

Bloomin' Brands’s $2.20 billion of debt exceeds the $70.06 million of cash on its balance sheet. Furthermore, its 5× net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio (based on its EBITDA of $412.1 million over the last 12 months) shows the company is overleveraged.Bloomin' Brands Net Debt Position

At this level of debt, incremental borrowing becomes increasingly expensive and credit agencies could downgrade the company’s rating if profitability falls. Bloomin' Brands could also be backed into a corner if the market turns unexpectedly – a situation we seek to avoid as investors in high-quality companies.

Story Continues

We hope Bloomin' Brands can improve its balance sheet and remain cautious until it increases its profitability or pays down its debt.

Final Judgment

We see the value of companies helping consumers, but in the case of Bloomin' Brands, we’re out. After the recent drawdown, the stock trades at 4.2× forward price-to-earnings (or $7.66 per share). While this valuation is optically cheap, the potential downside is huge given its shaky fundamentals. There are better investments elsewhere. We’d recommend looking at a top digital advertising platform riding the creator economy.

Stocks We Like More Than Bloomin' Brands

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