There's been a notable change in appetite for Bellevue Gold Limited (ASX:BGL) shares in the week since its annual report, with the stock down 14% to AU$1.15. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of AU$298m were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 15% to hit AU$0.063 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Bellevue Gold  earnings-and-revenue-growth

Following the latest results, Bellevue Gold's six analysts are now forecasting revenues of AU$559.0m in 2025. This would be a major 87% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 81% to AU$0.11. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$592.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.13 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of AU$1.91, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Bellevue Gold's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Bellevue Gold analyst has a price target of AU$2.54 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$1.25. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 87% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 102% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 0.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that Bellevue Gold is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.



The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Bellevue Gold. They also downgraded Bellevue Gold's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Bellevue Gold. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Bellevue Gold analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Bellevue Gold (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.