What underlying fundamental trends can indicate that a company might be in decline? Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. Ultimately this means that the company is earning less per dollar invested and on top of that, it's shrinking its base of capital employed. And from a first read, things don't look too good at Bakkavor Group (LON:BAKK), so let's see why.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Bakkavor Group, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.081 = UK£82m ÷ (UK£1.5b - UK£488m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to July 2023).

So, Bakkavor Group has an ROCE of 8.1%.  Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Food industry average of 10%.

View our latest analysis for Bakkavor Group  roce

In the above chart we have measured Bakkavor Group's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our freereport for Bakkavor Group.

What Can We Tell From Bakkavor Group's ROCE Trend?

There is reason to be cautious about Bakkavor Group, given the returns are trending downwards. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 12% that they were earning five years ago. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Bakkavor Group to turn into a multi-bagger.



In Conclusion...

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last five years have experienced a 25% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. With underlying trends that aren't great in these areas, we'd consider looking elsewhere.

Bakkavor Group does have some risks though, and we've spotted  4 warning signs for Bakkavor Group that you might be interested in.

While Bakkavor Group isn't earning the highest return, check out this freelist of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.