It's been a pretty great week for Coles Group Limited (ASX:COL) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to AU$24.04 in the week since its latest annual results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of AU$44b and statutory earnings per share of AU$0.81. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Coles Group from 15 analysts is for revenues of AU$46.0b in 2026. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 3.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 18% to AU$0.95. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$45.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.95 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Coles Group

The consensus price target rose 8.9% to AU$23.41despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Coles Group's earnings by assigning a price premium. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Coles Group analyst has a price target of AU$26.10 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$16.50. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 3.5% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 3.5% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 3.3% per year. So although Coles Group is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Coles Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Coles Group is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free  on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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