It's been a sad week for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (NYSE:AESI), who've watched their investment drop 12% to US$11.95 in the week since the company reported its first-quarter result. Revenue of US$298m surpassed estimates by 2.2%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 93% below expectations at US$0.01 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Atlas Energy Solutions' seven analysts is for revenues of US$1.27b in 2025. This would reflect a notable 9.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 10% to US$0.31. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.28b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.57 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Atlas Energy Solutions

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 13% to US$18.78, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Atlas Energy Solutions analyst has a price target of US$29.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$12.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Atlas Energy Solutions' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Atlas Energy Solutions' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 13% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 44% p.a. growth over the last three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Atlas Energy Solutions' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Atlas Energy Solutions. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Atlas Energy Solutions' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Atlas Energy Solutions. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Atlas Energy Solutions analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted  3 warning signs for Atlas Energy Solutions  (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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