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Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG) is on investors’ radars after recent share price moves, with the stock closing at A$213.48 and showing mixed returns over the past week, month and past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for Macquarie Group.

Looking beyond the latest move to A$213.48, Macquarie Group’s 8.34% 3 month share price return and 4.79% year to date share price return contrast with a slightly negative 1 year total shareholder return. This suggests shorter term momentum has improved even as longer term holders have seen more muted outcomes.

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With Macquarie trading at A$213.48, a value score of 1 and an 8.35% discount to the average analyst price target, the question is whether this represents a mispriced opportunity or whether the market is already factoring in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 7.7% Undervalued

On the most followed narrative, Macquarie Group’s fair value of A$231.30 sits above the A$213.48 last close. This immediately raises questions about what is built into that gap.

The analysts have a consensus price target of A$221.239 for Macquarie Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of A$250.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just A$195.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what justifies that higher fair value without stretching the P/E multiple far beyond peers? Revenue, margins and earnings are all being pushed in a specific direction in this storyline, and one assumption in particular carries most of the weight behind A$231.30. Want to see which moving part really drives the model and how a 9.10% discount rate still supports an undervaluation call?

Result: Fair Value of A$231.30 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this story can quickly change if margin pressure in Banking and Financial Services persists, or if weaker client activity in Commodities and Global Markets lingers longer than analysts expect.

Find out about the key risks to this Macquarie Group narrative.

Another View: Multiples Paint A Tougher Picture

There is a different take when you look at Macquarie Group through its P/E. At 21.5x, the shares sit above the Australian Capital Markets industry at 20.2x and above a fair ratio of 20.3x. This suggests there may be less cushion if expectations slip. Which version of “fair value” do you trust more?

Story Continues

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.ASX:MQG P/E Ratio as at Mar 2026

Next Steps

Does this story feel more cautious or optimistic to you? If you want to move quickly and ground your own view in the numbers, it is worth weighing the balance of 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs before you decide what comes next.

Ready to hunt for your next opportunity?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include MQG.AX.

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