It's been a good week for ArcelorMittal S.A. (AMS:MT) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 4.3% to €27.08. Revenues of US$15b fell slightly short of expectations, but earnings were a definite bright spot, with statutory per-share profits of US$1.04 an impressive 59% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, ArcelorMittal's twelve analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$60.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 149% to US$3.91. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$61.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.74 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for ArcelorMittal

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €30.51, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on ArcelorMittal, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €40.24 and the most bearish at €26.13 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.7% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 1.5% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.1% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - ArcelorMittal is expected to lag the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards ArcelorMittal following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ArcelorMittal's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €30.51, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for ArcelorMittal going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for ArcelorMittal that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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