ANZ Group Holdings (ASX:ANZ) shares continued their upward momentum this week. Investors are paying close attention to the company’s recent performance and financial health. Shares gained ground again today, reflecting ongoing interest in Australia’s banking sector.

See our latest analysis for ANZ Group Holdings.

Momentum has been building for ANZ Group Holdings, with its latest share price closing at $34.20 and recent gains contributing to a positive tone in Australia’s banking sector. Factoring in dividends, its 1-year total shareholder return stands at a robust 21.9%. While short-term share price moves have been steady, the long-term performance suggests investors are staying confident in the stock’s earnings growth and resilience.

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With shares trading above analyst price targets and recent gains reflecting optimism, the question now is whether ANZ Group Holdings is undervalued or if the market has already priced in the bank’s future growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 9.5% Overvalued

ANZ Group Holdings’ narrative-based fair value sits below its current share price, setting up a debate on whether optimism has run ahead of fundamentals. Investors are focused on what could drive future profitability amid cost-cutting and platform investments.

The completion of the Suncorp Bank acquisition is expected to yield larger and earlier synergies than initially planned, enhancing scale and growth in Queensland, which should positively impact revenue and net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Why is this valuation creating a stir? The numbers behind it hinge on big revenue boosts, profit margin shifts, and a future profit multiple that suggests bold expectations. Yet hidden within are a few surprises about just how high analysts see future earnings climbing. Curious about which projections underpin this view? Take a look behind the curtain and see what’s driving these assumptions.

Result: Fair Value of $31.23 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, heightened regulatory scrutiny or execution risks in ANZ’s technology investments could weaken projected cost efficiencies and earnings growth assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this ANZ Group Holdings narrative.

Another View: SWS DCF Model Offers a Different Angle

While the narrative-based valuation suggests ANZ Group Holdings may be overvalued, the SWS DCF model tells a different story, estimating a fair value of A$34.79, which is just above the current share price. This suggests the market may be underestimating some long-term cash flow potential. Which approach do you trust more for the future?

Story Continues

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.ANZ Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2025

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out ANZ Group Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own ANZ Group Holdings Narrative

If you see it differently or want to dive deeper into the numbers yourself, you can shape your own perspective on ANZ Group Holdings in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your ANZ Group Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include ANZ.AX.

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