Market forces rained on the parade of FTAI Aviation Ltd. (NASDAQ:FTAI) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as the analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.

We've discovered 4 warning signs about FTAI Aviation. View them for free.

Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from FTAI Aviation's nine analysts is for revenues of US$2.3b in 2025, which would reflect a sizeable 20% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 1,732% to US$4.75. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.11 in 2025. It looks like analyst sentiment has fallen somewhat in this update, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a small dip in earnings per share numbers as well.

See our latest analysis for FTAI Aviation NasdaqGS:FTAI Earnings and Revenue Growth May 8th 2025

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$166 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the FTAI Aviation's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that FTAI Aviation's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 28% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 36% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.2% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that FTAI Aviation is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for FTAI Aviation. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on FTAI Aviation after today.

After a downgrade like this, it's pretty clear that previous forecasts were too optimistic. What's more, we've spotted several possible issues with FTAI Aviation's business, like its declining profit margins. Learn more, and discover the 3 other flags we've identified, for free  on our platform here.

Story Continues

Of course, seeing company management  invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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