Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE:AMR) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$532m missing analyst predictions by 7.2%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$2.60 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from dual analysts covering Alpha Metallurgical Resources is for revenues of US$2.25b in 2025. This implies a chunky 14% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -US$5.36 per share in 2025. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.59b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.23 in 2025. There looks to have been a major change in sentiment regarding Alpha Metallurgical Resources' prospects following the latest results, with a real cut to revenues and the analysts now forecasting a loss instead of a profit.

Check out our latest analysis for Alpha Metallurgical Resources

The average price target fell 33% to US$183, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Alpha Metallurgical Resources' valuation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Alpha Metallurgical Resources' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 19% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 16% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.3% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Alpha Metallurgical Resources is expected to lag the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for Alpha Metallurgical Resources dropped from profits to a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for Alpha Metallurgical Resources going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk.  We've identified 1 warning sign  with Alpha Metallurgical Resources , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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