Investors in The Western Union Company (NYSE:WU) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.8% to close at US$10.18 following the release of its first-quarter results. Revenues of US$984m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$0.36, missing estimates by 4.0%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Western Union's 16 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$4.14b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 42% to US$1.62 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.15b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.66 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Western Union

The consensus price target held steady at US$11.43, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Western Union analyst has a price target of US$17.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$9.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would also point out that the forecast 0.2% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 4.3% annually over the past five years By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Western Union to suffer worse than the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Western Union. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Western Union's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Western Union going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Western Union (3 are a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.