Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman reiterated the Outperform rating on Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT), lowering the price forecast from $145 to $130.

Target will report its first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, May 21. Analyst Feldman lowered first-quarter and full-year 2025 estimates for Target, citing weaker consumer spending, particularly in discretionary and general merchandise, along with rising costs tied to promotions, labor, tech investments, and potential tariff impacts.

While Placer.ai data showed declining traffic early in the quarter with some recovery later, likely from Easter timing and improved weather, Feldman noted that Target’s efforts in value offerings, loyalty programs, private label expansion, store upgrades, and brand partnerships (Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS), Levi Strauss & Co (NYSE:LEVI), Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA)) could partially offset pressure.

Also Read: Pentair To Rally More Than 15%? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For Friday

Feldman now projects total sales to fall 0.9% to $24.3 billion, with comparable sales to decline 1.5%, down from the prior forecast of 1.0% and below the FactSet consensus of a 1.2% drop.

Feldman noted that Target sources roughly 50% of its cost of goods sold from within the U.S., while reducing its reliance on China from about 60% in 2017 to about 30% in 2024, with plans to bring that below 25% by 2026. Although the company hasn’t quantified the tariff impact, it plans to mitigate risks through sourcing diversification, vendor negotiations, and price increases while preserving balance sheet flexibility.

Reflecting softer consumer demand, a weaker product mix, and added cost pressures, especially tariffs, Feldman lowered his 2025 EPS estimate to $8.80 from $9.30 (vs. FactSet’s $8.62) and 2026 EPS to $9.55 from $10.14 (vs. FactSet’s $9.20).

Price Action: TGT shares are trading higher by 1.68% to $98.62 at last check on Friday.

Read Next:

Emerging Markets Break Out As ‘Peace Trades’ Gain Momentum, Hartnett Says

Image by bluestork via Shutterstock

Latest Ratings for TGT

Date Firm Action From To Mar 2022 Raymond James Maintains  Strong Buy Mar 2022 JP Morgan Maintains  Overweight Mar 2022 Deutsche Bank Maintains  Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for TGT

View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Up Next: Transform your trading with Benzinga Edge's one-of-a-kind market trade ideas and tools. Click now to access unique insights that can set you ahead in today's competitive market.

Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga?

TARGET (TGT): Free Stock Analysis Report

Story Continues

This article Analyst Lowers Target Q1 Forecast Amid Spending Slump, Rising Consumer Tariffs originally appeared on Benzinga.com

© 2025 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

View Comments