AMD (AMD) will report its first quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday, providing a look at the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on chip sales and a look at the health of the AI trade ahead of Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings later this month.

AMD’s announcement follows rival Intel’s (INTC) report, which saw the company beat on the top and bottom lines, but issue lighter than anticipated revenue guidance in the second quarter. At the time, Intel CFO David Zinsner blamed the “current macro environment” for creating “elevated uncertainty across the industry.”

PC makers produce a number of their products in China, as well as Vietnam and Malaysia. Computers are currently exempt from Trump’s tariffs, but the administration has said it could implement duties on semiconductors based on the results of the Commerce Department’s Section 232 investigation.

For the quarter, AMD is expected to report adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.94 on revenue of $7.1 billion. The company saw EPS of $0.62 and revenue of $5.4 billion in the same quarter last year. Data Center segment revenue is expected to bring in $3.6 billion in the quarter compared to $2.3 billion last year.

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In April, AMD, like Nvidia (NVDA), announced that the Trump administration instituted tighter export controls on AI chips destined for China. The move effectively cuts off AMD’s ability to ship its MI308 AI processor to the region, and, according to the company, might result in as much as an $800 million charge on inventory, purchases commitments, and related reserves.

And that could weigh on the company’s Q2 outlook.Lisa Su, chairwoman and CEO of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), delivers the opening keynote speech at Computex 2024, Taiwan's premier tech expo, in Taipei on June 3, 2024. (Photo by I-Hwa CHENG / AFP) (Photo by I-HWA CHENG/AFP via Getty Images)·I-HWA CHENG via Getty Images

“We expect AMD to post higher results and guide lower given 1Q strength for MI308, but turning into a headwind in 2Q with the AI chip ban into China,” KeyBanc analyst John Vinh wrote in an investor note ahead of AMD’s earnings announcement.

AI stocks took a major hit over the past few months on fears that the trade has been overhyped. DeepSeek’s January announcement that it managed to produce high-performance AI models using less than top-of-the-line chips further hammered chip stocks.

Shares of AMD are off 18% year-to-date and 36% over the last 12 months. Nvidia is down 15% year-to-date, but still up 22% over the last year.

“Unfortunately for AMD the AI story, already somewhat tenuous, is likely to take another material haircut on the back of new China sanctions (note that every $1B is ~25 cents in earnings) and overall remains uncompetitive in our view,” Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon wrote in an investor note.

AI chip companies are also staring down the government's AI diffusion rules, which would require certain countries to acquire special licenses to gain access to a limited number of US AI chips.

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AMD’s Client segment, which includes revenue from the sale of laptop and desktop chips, is expected to generate $2 billion in revenue, up from $1.3 billion in Q1 last year. There’s the potential that the company could report that it saw a pull forward in sales leading up to Trump’s April 2 tariff announcements.

“The core PC business appears to be exposed to channel effects (client shipments last quarter were higher than the peak of the COVID bubble already),” Rasgon explained.

AMD’s gaming business, which includes sales of GPUs and semi-custom chips for video game consoles, is expected to bring in $540 million, a 41% year-over-year decline from the same quarter last year.

Sony (SONY) and Microsoft’s (MSFT) consoles are approaching the second half of their life cycles, which generally means sales slide versus when they initially hit the market. Companies are also raising prices on the systems to contend with tariffs.

Consoles aren’t exempt from duties like laptops and desktops. As a result, Microsoft announced it is raising the price of its Xbox Series X by $100 to $599. The company also said it’s raising the price of some of its first-party games to $79 from $69.

Sony has increased the price of its PlayStation in Europe, but not in the US.Sign up for Yahoo Finance's Week in Tech newsletter.·yahoofinance

Email Daniel Howley at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielHowley.

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