Key Insights

Mitchells & Butlers' estimated fair value is UK£2.81 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Mitchells & Butlers' UK£2.96 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate Our fair value estimate is 20% lower than Mitchells & Butlers' analyst price target of UK£3.51

Does the August share price for Mitchells & Butlers plc (LON:MAB) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Mitchells & Butlers

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (£, Millions)  UK£115.6m UK£129.5m UK£136.0m UK£141.1m UK£145.6m UK£149.7m UK£153.5m UK£157.2m UK£160.7m UK£164.1m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x6 Analyst x6 Analyst x1 Est @ 3.75% Est @ 3.20% Est @ 2.82% Est @ 2.55% Est @ 2.37% Est @ 2.24% Est @ 2.14% Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 10.0%  UK£105 UK£107 UK£102 UK£96.4 UK£90.4 UK£84.6 UK£78.8 UK£73.4 UK£68.2 UK£63.3

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£869m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 10.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£164m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (10.0%– 1.9%) = UK£2.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£2.1b÷ ( 1 + 10.0%)10= UK£801m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£1.7b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£3.0, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. dcf

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Mitchells & Butlers as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.662. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Mitchells & Butlers

Strength

Debt is well covered by cash flow.

Weakness

Interest payments on debt are not well covered.

Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Opportunity

Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the British market.

Threat

Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the British market.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Mitchells & Butlers, we've compiled three fundamental aspects you should further examine:

Risks: As an example, we've found 2 warning signs for Mitchells & Butlers (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to consider before investing here. Future Earnings: How does MAB's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the LSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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