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Highlights

  • Macquarie Research sees a 64.94% upside, issuing an OUTPERFORM rating with a price target of AUD 27.00.

  • Multiple analysts have maintained or reiterated BUY ratings, with an average price target of AUD 21.81, representing a 33.23% increase from current levels.

  • The company remains on track to release its June quarterly results on 24 July 2025.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST) may have endured a turbulent 2025, but analysts remain optimistic about the gold miner's future, assigning several BUY and OUTPERFORM ratings that forecast as much as a 64.94% potential upside from current levels. Despite recent share price volatility and production concerns, experts appear to be betting on Northern Star.

A Rough Ride in 2025

It’s been a rollercoaster year for Northern Star’s stock. From peaking in late April, the share price has shed nearly 29%, hitting a six-month low of AUD 16.37 as of Wednesday’s close. The sharp swings were triggered by a mix of underwhelming production updates and cautious forward guidance, with investor sentiment dampened despite firm gold prices.

The company’s April quarterly update revealed softer-than-expected gold sales of 385,000 ounces, prompting a downward revision of full-year production guidance. This move rattled investors and cast doubt on the company’s ability to meet targets, leading to a steep selloff.

Further disappointment came in July when Northern Star updated its FY26 guidance, predicting gold sales between 1,700–1,850koz and flagging the September quarter as likely to be the weakest due to planned shutdowns. The company also warned of higher all-in sustaining costs driven by sector-wide inflation, increased capital requirements, and major investment in processing facilities.

Analysts Hold Steady Amid Volatility

Despite the short-term challenges, several analysts are keeping the faith in Northern Star growth. Macquarie Research, for instance, issued a OUTPERFORM rating on 08 July 2025, projecting a target price of AUD 27.00, which represents a 64.94% premium to the current share price.

Jefferies analyst Mitch Ryan echoed similar optimism, assigning a BUY rating with a price target of AUD 20.00, implying an upside of 22.17%. Other unnamed brokers have also offered BUY or equivalent high-conviction calls, including a target of AUD 24.30 (48.44% upside).

Overall, the stock’s mean target price stands at AUD 21.81, suggesting a 33.23% increase from present levels.

Eyes on Upcoming Quarterly Report

The company’s next potential turning point will be the release of its June quarterly results on 24 July 2025. Investors and analysts alike will be closely watching for updates on production performance, cost management, and capital deployment, especially following the FY26 guidance revision.