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Highlights

  • Macquarie Research upgrades Northern Star to Outperform with a target price of AUD 25.00.

  • The stock offers a potential 53.66% upside from its current price of AUD 15.79.

  • Record free cash flow of AUD 536 million and robust FY25 gold production support the positive outlook.

     

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST) has received a notable boost from Macquarie Research, which has assigned the gold producer an ‘Outperform’ rating, reflecting growing confidence in the company’s operational performance and strategic outlook. The broker set a target price of AUD 25.00, representing a potential upside of 53.66% from the current trading price of AUD 15.79 (as of July 25, 2025).

This rating likelt to come on the back of the company's FY25 performance, coupled with favourable long-term prospects driven by key projects like the KCGM Mill Expansion and the Hemi Development Project.

Record Cash Flow and Reliable Production Cement Outlook

Northern Star reported record annual underlying free cash flow of AUD 536 million and net mine cash flow of AUD 1.19 billion for FY25, demonstrating its strong financial foundation. The company’s gold sales for the year stood at 1,634koz, delivered at an AISC of AUD 2,163/oz, firmly within the revised guidance range.

Operationally, several of NST’s assets delivered standout performance:

  • Pogo achieved record mill run-rates with annualised throughput of 1.6Mtpa.

  • Jundee and Thunderbox recorded record quarterly milled tonnes, highlighting consistency in production.

  • KCGM increased ore tonnage from both open pit and underground sources.

NST’s June quarter results were equally robust, with 444koz of gold sold at an AISC of AUD 2,197/oz (US$1,408/oz).

FY26 Guidance 

The company has issued an optimistic outlook for FY26:

  • Production guidance is set at 1,700–1,850koz of gold sold.

  • AISC guidance ranges between AUD 2,300–2,700/oz.

  • Capital growth expenditure, including the KCGM Mill Expansion and Hemi Project, is expected to fall between AUD 2.13–2.27 billion.

  • Exploration spend is forecast at AUD 225 million.

The KCGM Mill Expansion has now entered its final build year and remains on track, promising future upside from increased processing capacity and operational efficiencies.

Financial Position and Shareholder Focus

Northern Star enters FY26 with a net cash position of AUD 1.01 billion, even after the De Grey acquisition. The company also completed a AUD 300 million on-market share buyback, enhancing shareholder returns, with an average repurchase price of AUD 11.04 per share.

Importantly, the company has updated its hedging policy, eliminating mandatory commitments and enabling greater exposure to favourable spot pricing.