Highlights

  • Mineral Resources shares rise 3.9% to AUD 46.39 amid trading on ASX 200.
  • Macquarie forecasts 29% QoQ increase in iron ore shipments for FY26.
  • Broker maintains underperform rating despite stronger-than-expected Onslow sales volumes.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX:MIN), a diversified resources and lithium producer, saw shares gain 3.9% to AUD 46.39, following yesterday’s close at AUD 44.67. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX:XJO) meanwhile is down 0.1% during the same period.

  • Over the past year, Mineral Resources shares are down 9.8% and roughly 50% below January 2023 all-time highs.
  • The decline has been influenced by ongoing weakness in global lithium prices, affecting the company’s diversified portfolio.

Analyst Outlook

In its recent 'Diversified Miners Preview' report, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX:MQG) highlighted expectations for Mineral Resources’ FY26 performance.

  • Iron ore shipments from the Onslow Iron Project in Western Australia are forecast to reach ~8.3Mt in 1QFY26, exceeding consensus of ~7.4Mt.
  • Pilbara Hub shipments are expected at ~2.4Mt, in line with consensus estimates.
  • Lithium output from Wodgina/Mt Marion is projected at 127kt versus 128kt consensus.

Despite the positive shipment figures, Macquarie retained its underperform rating. The broker noted a forecasted 44% QoQ increase in iron ore shipments from Onslow, partially offset by a 6% decline at Pilbara Hub, resulting in a net 29% QoQ growth.

FY26 Guidance

Mineral Resources’ FY26 guidance includes total capital expenditure of AUD 1.1 billion, with approximately half allocated to the Onslow Iron Project and the remainder for sustaining capital.

  • The Mining Services division is expected to produce between 305–325 million tonnes, reflecting 12.5% volume growth.
  • The lithium segment continues to face headwinds, with management emphasizing cost reductions and operational efficiencies in anticipation of future price recovery.

Macquarie noted alignment with Mineral Resources’ mid-point production and operating expenditure guidance but forecast a slightly lower capex of ~AUD 1.0 billion compared to the company’s AUD 1.14 billion mid-point estimate.