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Highlights

  • Jefferies' Mitch Ryan maintains BUY rating with a target price of AUD 20.00

  • Target implies 19.05% upside from 8 July closing price of AUD 16.90

  • FY25 gold sales hit 1.634Moz, within revised guidance; FY26 gold production set to increase to up to 1.85Moz

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST), a leading Australian gold miner, has earned a continued BUY rating from Jefferies analyst Mitch Ryan, with a 12-month price target of AUD 20.00. The recommendation suggests a potential upside of 19.05% from the company’s last traded price of AUD 16.90 on 8 July 2025.

The rating by Ryan adds weight to a broader positive sentiment, as Northern Star maintains a consensus BUY recommendation and an average target price of AUD 22.48—representing an implied 33.02% upside. The bullish stance by Jefferies likely to be followed by Northern Star’s June quarter operational update and ambitious FY26 production guidance.

FY25 Guidance Met as June Quarter Strengthens Position

Northern Star reported gold sales of 1.634 million ounces (Moz) for FY25, falling within its revised guidance range of 1.63–1.66Moz. The June quarter alone contributed 444koz to this result. While the Kalgoorlie Production Centre underperformed slightly, selling 832koz against guidance of 850–860koz, the Pogo operation exceeded expectations with 283koz sold, above its upper guidance limit.

The company also confirmed that its full-year all-in sustaining cost (AISC) would fall within the guided range of A$2,100–2,200 per ounce.

FY26 Production Growth and Strategic Investment Drive Bullish Outlook

Northern Star has unveiled its FY26 guidance, forecasting gold sales between 1.7Moz and 1.85Moz, representing a year-on-year increase. While the September quarter is expected to be weaker due to planned maintenance shutdowns across its production centres, the June 2026 quarter is set to benefit from the completion of several growth initiatives.

The flagship Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (KCGM) Mill Expansion remains central to the company's future growth. It is on track for commissioning in early FY27 and is backed by significant investment, including:

  • A$530–550 million for the mill expansion

  • A$315–370 million in mill readiness capital

  • A$500–550 million for operational development

In total, FY26 growth capex is forecast to exceed A$1.1 billion, excluding additional exploration spend of A$225 million. These investments aim to ensure Northern Star remains in the bottom half of the global cost curve while expanding its production base.