Highlights

  • Both Northern Star Resources and Newmont Corporation carry EODHD/Others consensus “Buy” ratings, underscoring analysts’ positive medium‑term outlook for gold equities.
  • Operational performance diverges: Northern Star’s 1H FY26 saw strong earnings growth and capital investment, while Newmont delivered record free cash flow and full‑year earnings in 2025.
  • Share performance reflects differing risk‑reward profiles, with market sentiment tied to gold prices, project catalysts and capital allocation strategies.

Gold mining remains a core defensive and growth theme for investors amid inflation concerns, economic uncertainty and shifting monetary policy. Two of the most watched equities in this space are Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST) and Newmont Corporation (ASX:NEM) — both top‑tier producers with global footprints. While Northern Star is a leading Australia‑based mid‑cap gold producer, Newmont is the world’s largest gold miner by market capitalisation and scale.

According to EODHD/Others consensus data, both companies enjoy “Buy” ratings, with analysts signalling confidence in their operational execution and future earnings prospects. Northern Star’s target price stands at AUD 29.27, while Newmont’s is a substantially higher AUD 217.6 — reflecting differences in scale, global diversity, cash flow generation, and long‑term production profiles.

This article compares the two companies across key dimensions, with an emphasis on EODHD/Others broker sentiment, share performance, recent financial results, production outlooks, capital allocation strategies and market context. The goal is to equip investors with a nuanced, analytical understanding of where value and risks lie within these two gold equities.

EODHD/Others Consensus Ratings: Buy on Both Stocks

EODHD/Others, a highly respected provider of market data and broker consensus analytics, assigns “Buy” ratings to both Northern Star and Newmont. A EODHD/Others Buy rating indicates that, on average, brokerage analysts covering the stock expect the shares to outperform broad market or sector returns over the next 12 months, driven by fundamentals, earnings growth, strategic initiatives or strong balance sheets.

For Northern Star, the Buy rating reflects strong half‑year earnings growth, continued dividend commitment, solid project pipeline and net cash balance sheet; the target price of AUD 29.27 suggests significant upside from the then‑current share price.

For Newmont, the Buy rating recognises its world‑class asset base, record free cash flow, disciplined capital allocation framework, enhanced dividend strategy, and diversified global portfolio. Newmont’s target price of AUD 217.6 incorporates expectations for continued margin expansion, operational stability and robust free cash generation.

EODHD/Others’s ratings thus provide a strong analytical backdrop: despite volatility in gold price cycles and short‑term production noise, analysts remain constructive on both companies’ medium‑to‑long‑term trajectories.

Share Price Performance: Market Sentiment in Motion

Northern Star

Northern Star’s share price (around A$18.50) experienced downward pressure on certain trading days, including a recent 2.43% drop, suggesting sensitivity to short‑term cash flow metrics and production guidance revisions. Despite this, the stock remains well‑supported by underlying fundamentals and a Buy rating, which indicates latent positive sentiment awaiting execution catalysts.

Northern Star’s share performance reflects investor attention on:

  • Earnings growth and realised gold price uplift.
  • Growth capex and its short‑term impact on free cash flow.
  • Progress toward commissioning major growth projects like the KCGM Mill Expansion.

Given EODHD/Others’s target price, analysts view the current price as undervalued relative to medium‑term earnings and project catalysts.

Newmont

Newmont trades (at ~US$142.46) with slightly higher daily volatility — recently down 2.59% — as investors digest macro uncertainty and broad market sell‑offs that often impact large cap resources stocks.

Despite cyclical share price pressures, Newmont’s overall trend has been supported by:

  • Record cash flow generation.
  • Dividend increases and enhanced capital allocation.
  • Strong operational execution across a diversified global portfolio.

Newmont’s share performance is correlated closely with gold pricing trends, global risk appetite, and fundamental data — making it a bellwether for the equity gold mining sector. The significant difference between current price and EODHD/Others’s target underscores analysts’ conviction in future earnings expansion and capital returns.

Northern Star Resources: Half‑Year FY26 Analysis

Financial Results

Northern Star’s 1H FY26 results reveal a strong earnings profile:

  • NPAT up 41% to A$714 million; Underlying NPAT up 49%.
  • Underlying EBITDA up 34% to A$1,876 million, driven by higher realised gold prices — averaging A$4,670/oz versus A$3,562/oz in 1H FY25.
  • Cash earnings of A$1,100 million, indicating substantial profitability metrics.
  • Net cash position of A$293 million, reflecting a strong balance sheet even with elevated capital expenditure.

The company maintained a fully franked interim dividend of 25 cents per share, demonstrating a shareholder‑friendly policy even during investment periods.

Cash Flow and Capital Allocation

Northern Star posted negative Underlying Free Cash Flow (A$319.9 million) in 1H FY26, primarily due to significant investing activities such as project spend on the KCGM Mill Expansion and other growth initiatives.

Operating cash flow remained robust at A$1,031 million, though down from the prior period due to timing of receipts and substantial tax outflows — including A$275 million related to previous periods.

Capital allocation remained balanced between growth investment and shareholder returns. While free cash flow dipped, analysts view this as strategic deployment that should underpin future production and earnings uplift.

Operational Outlook and Growth Projects

Northern Star revised its FY26 production guidance downward (1,600–1,700 koz) due to soft 2Q sales, and AISC guidance was adjusted to A$2,600–2,800/oz reflecting cost pressures and royalty effects of higher prices.

Key growth catalysts include:

  • KCGM Mill Expansion: expected commissioning in early FY27.
  • Hemi Development Project: progression toward production scale.

These projects are viewed by analysts as central to medium‑term production growth and margin expansion — core contributors to the Buy recommendation.

Newmont Corporation: Full Year 2025 Analysis

Comprehensive 2025 Performance

Newmont released robust full year 2025 results, highlighting operational scale and capital returns:

  • Net income of $7.2 billion and Adjusted Net Income of $7.6 billion.
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $13.5 billion, underscoring earnings potency across metals.
  • Record free cash flow of $7.3 billion, with quarterly contributions of $2.8 billion.
  • Cash from operating activities of $10.3 billion, reflecting strong operating fundamentals.

Production metrics revealed 5.7 million attributable gold ounces (5.9 million total), complemented by silver and copper output. AISC (all‑in sustaining cost) remained competitive at $1,358/oz for gold by‑product.

Capital Allocation Strategy

Newmont’s enhanced capital allocation framework positions the company to balance:

  • Dividend growth (e.g., 4Q dividend increased to $0.261 per share).
  • Debt reduction ($3.4 billion in 2025, resulting in net cash of ~$2.1 billion).
  • Share repurchases and returns ($3.4 billion returned in cash; repurchases ongoing under authorised program).

Liquidity remained high with $7.6 billion in cash and $11.6 billion in total liquidity, giving flexibility to weather market cycles and invest in high‑return projects.

Divestitures and Portfolio Optimisation

The company completed non‑core divestitures generating $4.5 billion after tax to streamline operations and channel capital toward core assets. This supports both earnings quality and balance sheet discipline.

2026 Guidance

Newmont provided clear 2026 guidance, which includes:

  • Approx. 5.3 million attributable gold ounces production.
  • Increased AISC at $1,680/oz (benefiting from by‑product credits).
  • Sustaining capital of ~$1.95 billion and development capex of ~$1.4 billion (Cadia Panel Caves, Tanami Expansion 2, Red Chris feasibility).

This guidance reinforces Newmont’s stable production base and disciplined cost management, factors underpinning analyst support.

Comparative Operational Analysis

Production Scale and Cost Dynamics

While both companies are gold producers, they differ materially in scale:

  • Newmont’s output dwarfs Northern Star’s, with multi‑million ounce annual production from diverse geographies.
  • Northern Star’s portfolio is more concentrated regionally but benefits from strategic growth investments that may yield production uplift beyond FY26.

Cost structures also vary:

  • Northern Star’s AISC adjustments reflect inflationary pressures and changes in guidance.
  • Newmont’s AISC trend includes by‑product credits and reflects broad diversified metal exposure.

Cash Flow and Capital Allocation Contrasts

  • Newmont’s free cash flow of $7.3 billion provides unmatched capital allocation flexibility, with robust dividends, share buybacks, and portfolio optimisation.
  • Northern Star’s near‑term free cash flow pressure stems largely from investment activities, reflecting a growth‑oriented phase rather than operational weakness.

Both companies maintain strong balance sheets, but Newmont’s substantially larger liquidity and net cash position provide enhanced risk‑absorbing capacity.

Risks and Considerations

Investors should weigh several risks:

  • Commodity Price Volatility: Gold and associated metal prices remain cyclical and can impact earnings and share performance.
  • Execution Risk: Growth projects such as KCGM expansion and Newmont’s panel caves and expansions require precise execution to deliver expected returns.
  • Currency and Macro Risks: Exchange rate fluctuations, inflation trends, and global economic conditions can influence cost structures and profitability.

Despite these risks, both stocks carry Buy ratings, reflecting analysts’ belief in differentiated earnings resilience and growth prospects.

Conclusion

Northern Star Resources and Newmont Corporation both hold EODHD/Others consensus Buy ratings, driven by strong earnings performance, strategic growth initiatives, and solid balance sheet positions. Northern Star’s first‑half earnings highlight resilience and growth investment, while Newmont delivered record free cash flow and shareholder returns in 2025. Analysts view both companies as well‑positioned to capitalise on favourable gold market dynamics and long‑term operational strength, though differences in scale, cash flow profiles and project execution may shape relative investor returns. For investors prioritising earnings growth and quality returns, both stocks present compelling narratives supported by broker conviction in future value creation.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

  1. What is the current EODHD/Others consensus rating for Northern Star and Newmont?
    Both Northern Star and Newmont have a EODHD/Others consensus “Buy” rating.
  2. How does Northern Star’s share price reflect market sentiment?
    Northern Star’s share price has shown short‑term volatility, influenced by production updates, cash flow metrics and gold prices, but analysts see upside relative to fundamentals.
  3. What drove Newmont’s record free cash flow in 2025?
    Newmont’s free cash flow strength stemmed from operational scale, portfolio optimisation and disciplined cost management.
  4. What are key growth catalysts for these miners?
    For Northern Star, the KCGM Mill Expansion and Hemi Project are key; for Newmont, the Cadia Panel Caves, Tanami Expansion 2 and feasibility at Red Chris are major drivers.
  5. How independent are these companies from gold price volatility?
    Both are highly correlated with gold prices, though Newmont’s diversified metal exposure (silver, copper) provides additional earnings buffers.