Highlights

  • HSBC Global Investment Research set a target price of AUD 160 on Rio Tinto.
  • Rio Tinto shares are up 26.03% year-on-year, despite trading lower on Friday.
  • Fourth-quarter production results showed 8% copper-equivalent production growth in 2025.

HSBC Global Investment Research has turned bullish on Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX:RIO), placing renewed focus on the miner’s diversified commodity exposure and recent operational updates. The broker set a target price of AUD 160, highlighting production momentum across copper, iron ore, aluminium and lithium, alongside improving conditions in key metals markets.

On Friday, shares of Rio Tinto closed at AUD 148.72 on Friday, 23 January, down 1.52% on the day, despite the absence of any price-sensitive announcement on the day. The stock has gained 26.03% over the past year and 24.48% over six months.

Commodity Prices Provide Broader Context

Movements across the metals complex continue to shape investor focus. According to Trading Economics data, copper futures climbed above USD 5.8 per pound on Friday, rebounding from recent multi-week lows. Copper prices are up 36.72% over the past year, supported by a weaker US dollar and increased demand for real assets amid shifting geopolitical dynamics between the United States and Europe.

In the aluminium market, UK aluminium futures hovered around USD 3,130 per tonne, near a more than three-year high. Supply-side constraints in China, the world’s largest aluminium producer, have contributed to tighter market conditions.

Fourth-Quarter Production Update

Rio Tinto released its fourth-quarter 2025 production results on 21 January 2026, reporting 8% year-on-year growth in copper-equivalent production. Shipments rose 5%, supported by the ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi copper project, record bauxite production, and increased lithium output.

Iron ore operations in the Pilbara delivered record fourth-quarter production, up 4% year-on-year, while shipments rose 7%. The Simandou project recorded its first shipment during the quarter.

Copper production increased 11% year-on-year, exceeding the upper end of the company’s revised guidance range. Aluminium operations and lithium assets in Argentina also delivered record quarterly production levels.

Outlook and Guidance

Rio Tinto confirmed that 2025 production guidance was met or exceeded across its product groups. 2026 guidance remains unchanged, as outlined at the company’s 2025 Capital Markets Day, covering iron ore, copper, aluminium, bauxite, alumina and lithium output ranges.

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Meta Title:
HSBC Sets AUD 160 Target on Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO)

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HSBC Global Investment Research issued a bullish rating on Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) with a target price of AUD 160, following updated production results and continued focus on metals markets.

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Rio Tinto, ASX RIO, HSBC Global Investment Research, broker rating, AUD 160 target, mining stocks, copper prices, aluminium prices, ASX blue-chip