Image source: © 2025 Krish Capital Pty. Ltd.

Highlights

  • Run-of-mine (ROM) production rose 20% quarter-on-quarter to 7 Mt, with expansion projects at Buchanan and Mammoth ramping up output.

  • Operating costs were US$200 million lower year-on-year, with Q2 unit costs at the lower end of guidance.

  • Liquidity increased by up to US$300 million through facility and transaction agreements, with no major debt maturities until 2028.

Coronado Global Resources Inc. (ASX:CRN) reported increased production and sales in the first half of 2025, alongside lower operating costs compared to the prior year. Despite a 24% year-on-year decline in average realised coal prices, which had an adverse impact of approximately US$400 million, the company achieved breakeven EBITDA in Q2. This followed a US$73 million loss in Q1.

Quarter-on-quarter ROM production increased 20% from 5.8 Mt to 7 Mt. Expansion projects at Buchanan and Mammoth are contributing additional output, with Buchanan now producing at an annualised rate of over 0.5 Mt and expected to reach around 1 Mt in Q4. Mammoth is producing at an annualised rate exceeding 0.6 Mt, with expectations to reach between 1.5 Mt and 2 Mt by the end of 2025.

Q2 unit costs per tonne sold were at the lower end of the company’s full-year guidance range, achieved without material benefit from the expansion projects that are still ramping up. Cost reduction initiatives are expected to deliver a further US$50 million in savings in H2 2025.

Capital and Liquidity Position
Year-to-date cash capital expenditure totals US$147 million, with the full-year forecast at approximately US$230 million. H2 capital expenditure is expected to be around US$70 million lower than H1, providing further support for liquidity.

Liquidity was strengthened by up to US$300 million through the closure of the Asset-Based Lending (ABL) Facility with Oaktree and the Stanwell transactions. As at 30 June 2025, total liquidity was US$284 million, comprising US$262 million in cash and cash equivalents and US$22 million available under the ABL Facility. Only US$75 million was drawn on the facility at that date. The company has no major debt maturities until 2028.

Market Outlook
Benchmark metallurgical coal prices have remained below US$200/t in 2025 amid weak global demand, increased competition, and tariff uncertainty. Coronado expects Chinese steel and coking coal fundamentals to improve in H2 2025, supported by measures to address overcapacity.

Growth in steel production outside China and the reduction of non-profitable supply, particularly from the U.S., are anticipated to support a price recovery. Positive indicators from India, including GDP growth forecasts of 6.4% in 2025 and 6.3% in 2026 and the extension of the coke import quota to 31 December 2025, are expected to contribute to demand.

Coronado foresees a significant long-term increase in global metallurgical coal trade, from 388 Mt in 2024 to an estimated 482 Mt by 2050, with India expected to drive demand growth. While short-term volatility persists, the company anticipates improved pricing in H2 2025, supported by tariffs on Chinese steel exports, supply rationalisation, and ongoing infrastructure and manufacturing expansion in India.