Highlights

  • Capstone Copper has received an outperform rating from Macquarie Research with a target price of AUD 17 per share.
  • In the recent quarter, the company delivered record adjusted EBITDA, and steady operational performance across its global portfolio.
  • Capstone reiterated its full-year 2025 production and cost guidance, with major project and exploration developments advancing on schedule.

Capstone Copper (ASX:CSC) has been issued an outperform rating from Macquarie Research, accompanied by a target price of AUD 17 per share. The analyst endorsement comes as the company reports encouraging set of financial and operational results for the third quarter of 2025 and maintains confidence in its full-year outlook. Listed on both the TSX and the ASX under the ticker CSC, Capstone continues to grab investor’s attention.

Quarterly Performance

For the three months to 30 September 2025, Capstone delivered consolidated copper production of 55,280 tonnes, well ahead of the 47,460 tonnes recorded in the same period last year. The quarter also saw total payable copper sales of 56,368 tonnes, supported by favourable sales timing at Mantos Blancos. Sulphide production contributed significantly, reaching 44,904 tonnes at C1 cash costs of USD 2.00 per pound, reflecting the successful ramp-up of Mantoverde’s sulphide operations. Mantoverde posted a productive quarter with 15,219 tonnes of copper produced at C1 cash costs of USD 1.40 per pound.

Net income attributable to shareholders rose sharply to USD 248.1 million, or USD 0.33 per share, compared with USD 12.5 million a year earlier. This figure included a significant non-cash impairment reversal at the Santo Domingo project. Adjusted net income reached USD 49.4 million, reversing the loss posted in Q3 2024. Capstone also reported record adjusted EBITDA of USD 249.2 million, driven by higher production volumes, improved costs and higher realised copper prices.

Operating cash flow before working capital changes nearly doubled year-on-year to USD 231.2 million. As at 30 September 2025, net debt stood at USD 725.8 million, a modest increase from the previous quarter. Total liquidity of USD 1.07 billion provides substantial financial flexibility, supported by USD 310.1 million in cash and short-term investments and significant availability on its revolving credit facility.

Strategic Developments

The company reaffirmed its 2025 production and cost guidance ranges, noting that annual copper output is trending towards the lower end of the 220,000 to 255,000-tonne range, while consolidated C1 costs are tracking towards the upper half of the USD 2.20 to USD 2.50 per pound range. At the asset level, Mantos Blancos and Cozamin continue to outperform on both production and costs, while the Pinto Valley mine faces ongoing challenges that place production below expectations.

Capstone sanctioned the Mantoverde Optimized project, a capital-efficient expansion designed to lift concentrator throughput from 32,000 to 45,000 tonnes per day. The project is expected to deliver approximately 20,000 tonnes of additional copper and extend Mantoverde’s mine life to 25 years. The company also advanced its strategic partnership with Orion Resource Partners, securing up to USD 360 million for a 25 per cent interest in Santo Domingo and Sierra Norte, marking a significant step towards a final investment decision expected in the second half of 2026.

Exploration activity progressed steadily, with Phase 1 drilling at Mantoverde identifying mineralisation extensions to the north of the existing pit. Capstone further strengthened its regional position through an exploration option agreement with ENAMI covering more than 18,000 hectares surrounding Sierra Norte. Environmental and social responsibility remains a central focus, underscored by Pinto Valley’s receipt of The Copper Mark certification.